flight turbulence forecast

PC5011 turbulence forecast

Pegasus Airlines · Antalya (AYT) to Düsseldorf (DUS)

Next departure at its usual time · Sun 25 Oct, 13:15 Antalya time

This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air PC5011 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.

Bumpiest stretchModerate

Smooth or light most of the way, with some moderate bumps mid-flight. The belt sign will likely come on.

AYT13:15Antalya
3h 50m
DUS16:05Düsseldorf
Model run 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC · checked just now
AYTDUS
SmoothLightModerateSevere The planned route of PC5011, coloured stretch by stretch by its forecast.
Bumpiest stretch
Moderate
Flight time
3h 50m
Distance
2,479 km
Cruise altitude
35,000 ft
Aircraft
Airbus A320

Bumpiness along the flight

Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.

SmoothLightModerateSevere 1h2h3h Take off Landing

Where, and why

The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.

Cruise0m – 1h 35mLight

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Cruise1h 35m – 2h 15mModerate

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Cruise2h 15m – 3h 35mLight

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Descent into Düsseldorf3h 35m – 3h 50mModerate

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.

Thunderstorms near the route

Around 3h 30m into the flight the forecast has thunderstorms about 100 km from the planned line.

The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.

The ride line stays calm here because the route as planned keeps its distance from them.

in the app

This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.

A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add PC5011 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.

The aircraft

What PC5011 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.

Airbus A320

Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.

The airline

Pegasus Airlines

Pegasus Airlines operates PC5011.

on your lock screen

PC5011 without unlocking your phone

Gate, delay, time to landing and the next bumpy stretch, on the lock screen from boarding to the baggage belt.

The route

Antalya (AYT) → Düsseldorf (DUS)

Distance
2,479 km
Flight time
3h 50m
Usual departure
13:15 local
Usual arrival
16:05 local

Forecast any other route →

What each level feels like

Smooth
Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
Light
Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
Moderate
Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
Severe
Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.

How this forecast is made

The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through a global weather model, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast.

Planned route · timing and conditions may change.

the live map

Watch the air along the route move

The app draws the route of PC5011 over the moving forecast: bumpy air, storms and the winds at cruise height. Scrub through the flight hour by hour.

Why turbulence isn't dangerous

Aircraft are designed for much worse.

Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.

Crews know where it is.

Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.

Keep your belt on.

Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Is turbulence dangerous? The long answer →

Questions about PC5011

Will PC5011 be bumpy?

For the flight on Sun 25 Oct: Smooth or light most of the way, with some moderate bumps mid-flight. The belt sign will likely come on. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.

How long is PC5011?

About 3h 50m gate to gate from Antalya to Düsseldorf, a distance of about 2,479 km.

What time does PC5011 leave?

PC5011 usually departs Antalya at 13:15 local time and arrives in Düsseldorf at 16:05 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.

Is turbulence dangerous on PC5011?

Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.

How accurate is this turbulence forecast?

It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.

flybud

Fly PC5011 knowing what's ahead

The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.

PC5011Moderate