4M311 turbulence forecast
LAN Argentina · Antalya (AYT) to Düsseldorf (DUS)
Next departure at its usual time · Fri 23 Oct, 07:30 Antalya time
This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air 4M311 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.
A gentle ride. A few light ripples at most, the kind that barely move your drink.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Light
- Flight time
- 4h
- Distance
- 2,479 km
- Cruise altitude
- 35,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- Medium
- Aircraft
- BOEING 777-300ER
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
Cruise0m – 47mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise47m – 2h 10mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise2h 10m – 3h 3mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise3h 3m – 4hLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Thunderstorms near the route
Between 1h 13m and 3h 39m into the flight the forecast has a few thunderstorms, the nearest about 90 km from the planned line.
The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.
The ride line stays calm here because the route as planned keeps its distance from them.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add 4M311 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
The aircraft
What 4M311 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
BOEING 777-300ER
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
LAN Argentina
LAN Argentina operates 4M311.
The route
Antalya (AYT) → Düsseldorf (DUS)
- Distance
- 2,479 km
- Flight time
- 4h
- Usual departure
- 07:30 local
- Usual arrival
- 10:30 local
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The weather models behind this forecast mostly agree; the bumpy patches may shift a little.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about 4M311
Will 4M311 be bumpy?
For the flight on Fri 23 Oct: A gentle ride. A few light ripples at most, the kind that barely move your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
How long is 4M311?
About 4h gate to gate from Antalya to Düsseldorf, a distance of about 2,479 km.
What time does 4M311 leave?
4M311 usually departs Antalya at 07:30 local time and arrives in Düsseldorf at 10:30 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on 4M311?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly 4M311 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.