PC1046 turbulence forecast
Pegasus Airlines · Hamburg (HAM) to Istanbul (SAW)
Thu 22 Oct · departs 17:35 Hamburg time
Smooth or light most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Moderate
- Flight time
- 3h 5m
- Distance
- 2,021 km
- Cruise altitude
- 35,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- Medium
- Aircraft
- Airbus A320 family
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
HAM · Take off0m – 22mModerate
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.
Cruise22m – 1h 8mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise1h 8m – 3h 5mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add PC1046 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest PC1046 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 7 min ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
Weather on arrival
18° and partly cloudy in Istanbul around landing time.
The aircraft
What PC1046 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Airbus A321neo
- Type code
- A21N
- First flew
- 1987
- In service since
- 1988
- Economy seating
- 3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 8,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Pegasus Airlines
Pegasus Airlines operates PC1046.
The route
Hamburg (HAM) → Istanbul (SAW)
- Distance
- 2,021 km
- Flight time
- 3h 5m
- Usual departure
- 17:35 local
- Usual arrival
- 21:40 local
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The weather models behind this forecast mostly agree; the bumpy patches may shift a little.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about PC1046
Will PC1046 be bumpy?
For the flight on Thu 22 Oct: Smooth or light most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies PC1046?
Recently PC1046 has been flown with: Airbus A320 family. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is PC1046?
About 3h 5m gate to gate from Hamburg to Istanbul, a distance of about 2,021 km.
What time does PC1046 leave?
PC1046 usually departs Hamburg at 17:35 local time and arrives in Istanbul at 21:40 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on PC1046?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly PC1046 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.