AF186 turbulence forecast
Air France · Paris (CDG) to Ota (HND)
Next departure at its usual time · Sat 7 Nov, 09:40 Paris time
This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air AF186 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.
Smooth or light most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps on descent. The belt sign will likely come on.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Moderate
- Flight time
- 13h 15m
- Distance
- 9,717 km
- Cruise altitude
- 37,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- High
- Aircraft
- Airbus A350
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
Cruise0m – 2h 9mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise2h 9m – 2h 56mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise2h 56m – 11h 20mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise11h 20m – 12h 27mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Descent into Ota12h 27m – 13h 15mModerate
Mountain waves
Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.
Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add AF186 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest AF186 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 13 days ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
The aircraft
What AF186 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Airbus A350-900
- Type code
- A359
- Seats on this flight
- 292
- First flew
- 2013
- In service since
- 2015
- Economy seating
- 3-3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Range
- 15,750 km
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 6,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Air France
- Flying since
- 1933
- Alliance
- SkyTeam
- Hubs
- Paris Charles de Gaulle
- Country
- France
The route
Paris (CDG) → Ota (HND)
- Distance
- 9,717 km
- Flight time
- 13h 15m
- Usual departure
- 09:40 local
- Usual arrival
- 05:55 local
Recent AF186 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | A350 | Moderate | 57 min late |
| Wed 21 Oct | A350 | Moderate | 18 min early |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about AF186
Will AF186 be bumpy?
For the flight on Sat 7 Nov: Smooth or light most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps on descent. The belt sign will likely come on. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies AF186?
Recently AF186 has been flown with: Airbus A350. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is AF186?
About 13h 15m gate to gate from Paris to Ota, a distance of about 9,717 km.
What time does AF186 leave?
AF186 usually departs Paris at 09:40 local time and arrives in Ota at 05:55 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on AF186?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly AF186 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.