QF4 turbulence forecast
Qantas · New York (JFK) to Auckland (AKL)
The forecast for its last flight, Tue 3 Nov
We have no upcoming QF4 departure on record, so this is the forecast its most recent flight carried.
Smooth most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Moderate
- Flight time
- 18h 9m
- Distance
- 14,230 km
- Cruise altitude
- 37,000 ft
- Weather models
- 4 blended
- Model agreement
- High
- Aircraft
- Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
Cruise0m – 2h 10mLight
Reported by pilots
A pilot flying this stretch recently radioed in some bumps. That report reaches your crew too, and it is one of the reasons they may pick a different altitude for a smoother ride.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise2h 10m – 3h 19mModerate
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise3h 18m – 14h 51mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise14h 50m – 16h 17mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise16h 17m – 18h 9mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Thunderstorms near the route
Around 2h 1m into the flight the forecast has a thunderstorm on the planned line itself.
The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.
The closest of these is within the 20 nm the crew has to keep, so expect a small turn around it. The line on the map is the planned route; the real track will bend around the storm.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add QF4 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest QF4 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 2 days ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
The aircraft
What QF4 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner
- Type code
- B789
- First flew
- 2009
- In service since
- 2011
- Economy seating
- 3-3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Range
- 15,370 km
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 6,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Qantas
- Flying since
- 1920
- Alliance
- Oneworld
- Hubs
- Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth
- Country
- Australia
The route
New York (JFK) → Auckland (AKL)
- Distance
- 14,230 km
- Flight time
- 18h 9m
- Usual departure
- 17:42 local
- Usual arrival
- 05:51 local
Recent QF4 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | 787 | Moderate | Cancelled |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 4 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about QF4
Will QF4 be bumpy?
Forecasts for QF4 open about three days before departure. Until then no weather model reaches far enough ahead to say anything honest about the ride.
What plane flies QF4?
Recently QF4 has been flown with: Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is QF4?
About 18h 9m gate to gate from New York to Auckland, a distance of about 14,230 km.
What time does QF4 leave?
QF4 usually departs New York at 17:42 local time and arrives in Auckland at 05:51 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on QF4?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly QF4 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.