flight turbulence forecast

PC1044 turbulence forecast

Pegasus Airlines · Hamburg (HAM) to Istanbul (SAW)

Next departure at its usual time · Sat 24 Oct, 13:50 Hamburg time

This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air PC1044 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.

Bumpiest stretchLight

Smooth most of the way, with some light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink.

HAM13:50Hamburg
3h 5m
SAW17:55Istanbul
Model run 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC · checked just now
HAMSAW
SmoothLightModerateSevere The planned route of PC1044, coloured stretch by stretch by its forecast.
Bumpiest stretch
Light
Flight time
3h 5m
Distance
2,021 km
Cruise altitude
35,000 ft
Weather models
2 blended
Model agreement
High
Aircraft
Airbus A320 family

Bumpiness along the flight

Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.

SmoothLightModerateSevere 1h2h Take off Landing

Where, and why

The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.

HAM · Take off0m – 36mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.

Cruise36m – 1hLight

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Cruise1h – 3h 5mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

in the app

This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.

A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add PC1044 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.

Flight status

The latest PC1044 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.

PC1044 · Tue 20 OctArrived · 23 min late
Departs · HAM
14:39
Scheduled 13:50 · Terminal 2
Arrives · SAW
18:18
Scheduled 17:55

Last update 2 days ago

Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.

The aircraft

What PC1044 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.

Airbus A321 (Sharklets)

Type code
A321
Seats on this flight
239
First flew
1987
In service since
1988
Economy seating
3-3
Engines
2
Cabin pressure equal to
8,000 ft

Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.

Airbus A320 family safety record →

The airline

Pegasus Airlines

Pegasus Airlines operates PC1044.

on your lock screen

PC1044 without unlocking your phone

Gate, delay, time to landing and the next bumpy stretch, on the lock screen from boarding to the baggage belt.

The route

Hamburg (HAM) → Istanbul (SAW)

Distance
2,021 km
Flight time
3h 5m
Usual departure
13:50 local
Usual arrival
17:55 local

Forecast any other route →

Recent PC1044 flights

The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.

DateAircraftForecastHow it ran
Tue 20 Oct A320 Moderate 23 min late
Mon 19 Oct A320 Light 9 min late

What each level feels like

Smooth
Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
Light
Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
Moderate
Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
Severe
Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.

How this forecast is made

The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 2 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.

The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.

Planned route · timing and conditions may change.

the live map

Watch the air along the route move

The app draws the route of PC1044 over the moving forecast: bumpy air, storms and the winds at cruise height. Scrub through the flight hour by hour.

Why turbulence isn't dangerous

Aircraft are designed for much worse.

Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.

Crews know where it is.

Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.

Keep your belt on.

Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Is turbulence dangerous? The long answer →

Questions about PC1044

Will PC1044 be bumpy?

For the flight on Sat 24 Oct: Smooth most of the way, with some light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.

What plane flies PC1044?

Recently PC1044 has been flown with: Airbus A320 family. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.

How long is PC1044?

About 3h 5m gate to gate from Hamburg to Istanbul, a distance of about 2,021 km.

What time does PC1044 leave?

PC1044 usually departs Hamburg at 13:50 local time and arrives in Istanbul at 17:55 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.

Is turbulence dangerous on PC1044?

Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.

How accurate is this turbulence forecast?

It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.

flybud

Fly PC1044 knowing what's ahead

The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.

PC1044Light