flight turbulence forecast

LS896 turbulence forecast

Jet2 · Antalya (AYT) to Manchester (MAN)

Next departure at its usual time · Mon 9 Nov, 15:10 Antalya time

This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air LS896 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.

Bumpiest stretchLight

A gentle ride. A few light ripples at most, the kind that barely move your drink.

AYT15:10Antalya
4h 45m
MAN16:55Manchester
Model run 6 Nov, 12:00 UTC · checked just now
AYTMAN
SmoothLightModerateSevere The planned route of LS896, coloured stretch by stretch by its forecast.
Bumpiest stretch
Light
Flight time
4h 45m
Distance
3,133 km
Cruise altitude
37,000 ft
Aircraft
Airbus A320 family

Bumpiness along the flight

Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.

SmoothLightModerateSevere 1h2h3h Take off Landing

Where, and why

The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.

Cruise0m – 1h 33mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Cruise1h 33m – 4h 26mLight

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Descent into Manchester4h 27m – 4h 45mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.

Thunderstorms near the route

From 1h 39m to 1h 51m into the flight the forecast has thunderstorms about 60 km from the planned line.

The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.

The ride line stays calm here because the route as planned keeps its distance from them.

in the app

This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.

A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add LS896 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.

Flight status

The latest LS896 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.

LS896 · Mon 26 OctArrived · 34 min late
Departs · AYT
15:32
Scheduled 15:10 · Terminal 2
Arrives · MAN
17:29
Scheduled 16:55 · Terminal 2

Last update 11 days ago

Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.

The aircraft

What LS896 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.

Airbus A321 NEO

Type code
A21N
Seats on this flight
232
First flew
1987
In service since
1988
Economy seating
3-3
Engines
2
Cabin pressure equal to
8,000 ft

Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.

Airbus A320 family safety record →

The airline

Jet2

Flying since
2003
Hubs
Manchester, Leeds Bradford, Birmingham
Country
United Kingdom

Jet2 safety record →

on your lock screen

LS896 without unlocking your phone

Gate, delay, time to landing and the next bumpy stretch, on the lock screen from boarding to the baggage belt.

The route

Antalya (AYT) → Manchester (MAN)

Distance
3,133 km
Flight time
4h 45m
Usual departure
15:10 local
Usual arrival
16:55 local

Forecast any other route →

Recent LS896 flights

The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.

DateAircraftForecastHow it ran
Mon 26 Oct A320 Light 34 min late

What each level feels like

Smooth
Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
Light
Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
Moderate
Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
Severe
Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.

How this forecast is made

The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through a global weather model, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast.

Planned route · timing and conditions may change.

the live map

Watch the air along the route move

The app draws the route of LS896 over the moving forecast: bumpy air, storms and the winds at cruise height. Scrub through the flight hour by hour.

Why turbulence isn't dangerous

Aircraft are designed for much worse.

Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.

Crews know where it is.

Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.

Keep your belt on.

Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Is turbulence dangerous? The long answer →

Questions about LS896

Will LS896 be bumpy?

For the flight on Mon 9 Nov: A gentle ride. A few light ripples at most, the kind that barely move your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.

What plane flies LS896?

Recently LS896 has been flown with: Airbus A320 family. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.

How long is LS896?

About 4h 45m gate to gate from Antalya to Manchester, a distance of about 3,133 km.

What time does LS896 leave?

LS896 usually departs Antalya at 15:10 local time and arrives in Manchester at 16:55 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.

Is turbulence dangerous on LS896?

Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.

How accurate is this turbulence forecast?

It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.

flybud

Fly LS896 knowing what's ahead

The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.

LS896Light