JL408 turbulence forecast
Japan Airlines · Frankfurt am Main (FRA) to Tokyo (Narita) (NRT)
Thu 5 Nov · departs 20:01 Frankfurt am Main time
Smooth most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Moderate
- Flight time
- 13h
- Distance
- 9,376 km
- Cruise altitude
- 37,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- High
- Aircraft
- Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
Cruise0m – 1h 23mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise1h 23m – 2h 10mModerate
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise2h 10m – 12h 13mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Descent into Tokyo (Narita)12h 13m – 13hLight
Mountain waves
Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.
Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add JL408 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest JL408 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 2 h ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
Weather on arrival
22° and clear in Tokyo (Narita) around landing time.
The aircraft
What JL408 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Boeing 787-9
- Type code
- B789
- Seats on this flight
- 195
- First flew
- 2009
- In service since
- 2011
- Economy seating
- 3-3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Range
- 15,370 km
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 6,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Japan Airlines
- Flying since
- 1951
- Alliance
- Oneworld
- Hubs
- Tokyo Haneda, Tokyo Narita
- Country
- Japan
The route
Frankfurt am Main (FRA) → Tokyo (Narita) (NRT)
- Distance
- 9,376 km
- Flight time
- 13h
- Usual departure
- 20:05 local
- Usual arrival
- 17:05 local
Recent JL408 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | 787 | Light | 22 min early |
| Mon 2 Nov | 787 | Light | 19 min early |
| Thu 29 Oct | 787 | Light | 24 min early |
| Mon 26 Oct | 787 | Light | 32 min early |
| Sat 24 Oct | 787 | Moderate | 6 min early |
| Sun 18 Oct | 787 | Light | On time |
| Sat 17 Oct | 787 | Moderate | 15 min late |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about JL408
Will JL408 be bumpy?
For the flight on Thu 5 Nov: Smooth most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies JL408?
Recently JL408 has been flown with: Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is JL408?
About 13h gate to gate from Frankfurt am Main to Tokyo (Narita), a distance of about 9,376 km.
What time does JL408 leave?
JL408 usually departs Frankfurt am Main at 20:05 local time and arrives in Tokyo (Narita) at 17:05 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on JL408?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly JL408 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.