JL407 turbulence forecast
Japan Airlines · Tokyo (Narita) (NRT) to Frankfurt am Main (FRA)
Fri 6 Nov · departs 10:43 Tokyo (Narita) time
Smooth most of the way, with occasional light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Light
- Flight time
- 14h 20m
- Distance
- 9,376 km
- Cruise altitude
- 37,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- High
- Aircraft
- Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
NRT · Take off0m – 52mLight
Mountain waves
Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.
The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.
Cruise52m – 14h 20mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add JL407 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest JL407 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 2 h ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
Weather on arrival
9° and clear in Frankfurt am Main around landing time.
The aircraft
What JL407 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Boeing 787-9
- Type code
- B789
- Seats on this flight
- 195
- First flew
- 2009
- In service since
- 2011
- Economy seating
- 3-3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Range
- 15,370 km
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 6,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Japan Airlines
- Flying since
- 1951
- Alliance
- Oneworld
- Hubs
- Tokyo Haneda, Tokyo Narita
- Country
- Japan
The route
Tokyo (Narita) (NRT) → Frankfurt am Main (FRA)
- Distance
- 9,376 km
- Flight time
- 14h 20m
- Usual departure
- 10:40 local
- Usual arrival
- 17:00 local
Recent JL407 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov | 787 | Moderate | On time |
| Tue 3 Nov | 787 | Moderate | 20 min early |
| Mon 2 Nov | 787 | Light | 42 min early |
| Thu 29 Oct | 787 | Moderate | 34 min early |
| Tue 27 Oct | 787 | Light | 15 min early |
| Sun 25 Oct | 787 | Moderate | 7 min early |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about JL407
Will JL407 be bumpy?
For the flight on Fri 6 Nov: Smooth most of the way, with occasional light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies JL407?
Recently JL407 has been flown with: Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is JL407?
About 14h 20m gate to gate from Tokyo (Narita) to Frankfurt am Main, a distance of about 9,376 km.
What time does JL407 leave?
JL407 usually departs Tokyo (Narita) at 10:40 local time and arrives in Frankfurt am Main at 17:00 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on JL407?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly JL407 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.