flight turbulence forecast

5J312 turbulence forecast

Cebu Pacific · Metro Manila (MNL) to Taipei (TPE)

Next departure at its usual time · Sun 8 Nov, 06:35 Metro Manila time

This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air 5J312 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.

Bumpiest stretchLight

Smooth most of the way, with some light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink.

MNL06:35Metro Manila
2h 30m
TPE09:05Taipei
Model run 6 Nov, 12:00 UTC · checked just now
MNLTPE
SmoothLightModerateSevere The planned route of 5J312, coloured stretch by stretch by its forecast.
Bumpiest stretch
Light
Flight time
2h 30m
Distance
1,176 km
Cruise altitude
35,000 ft
Weather models
3 blended
Model agreement
High
Aircraft
Airbus A330

Bumpiness along the flight

Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.

SmoothLightModerateSevere 1h Take off Landing

Where, and why

The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.

MNL · Take off0m – 23mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.

Cruise23m – 49mLight

Mountain waves

Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Cruise49m – 2h 30mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

in the app

This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.

A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add 5J312 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.

Flight status

The latest 5J312 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.

5J312 · Fri 6 NovArrived · 29 min late
Departs · MNL
07:31
Scheduled 06:35 · Terminal 3
Arrives · TPE
09:34
Scheduled 09:05 · Terminal 1

Last update 17 h ago

Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.

The aircraft

What 5J312 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.

Airbus A330

Type code
A330
Seats on this flight
290

Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.

The airline

Cebu Pacific

Cebu Pacific operates 5J312.

on your lock screen

5J312 without unlocking your phone

Gate, delay, time to landing and the next bumpy stretch, on the lock screen from boarding to the baggage belt.

The route

Metro Manila (MNL) → Taipei (TPE)

Distance
1,176 km
Flight time
2h 30m
Usual departure
06:35 local
Usual arrival
09:05 local

Forecast any other route →

Recent 5J312 flights

The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.

DateAircraftForecastHow it ran
Fri 6 Nov A330 Smooth 29 min late

What each level feels like

Smooth
Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
Light
Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
Moderate
Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
Severe
Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.

How this forecast is made

The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.

The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.

Planned route · timing and conditions may change.

the live map

Watch the air along the route move

The app draws the route of 5J312 over the moving forecast: bumpy air, storms and the winds at cruise height. Scrub through the flight hour by hour.

Why turbulence isn't dangerous

Aircraft are designed for much worse.

Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.

Crews know where it is.

Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.

Keep your belt on.

Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Is turbulence dangerous? The long answer →

Questions about 5J312

Will 5J312 be bumpy?

For the flight on Sun 8 Nov: Smooth most of the way, with some light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.

What plane flies 5J312?

Recently 5J312 has been flown with: A330. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.

How long is 5J312?

About 2h 30m gate to gate from Metro Manila to Taipei, a distance of about 1,176 km.

What time does 5J312 leave?

5J312 usually departs Metro Manila at 06:35 local time and arrives in Taipei at 09:05 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.

Is turbulence dangerous on 5J312?

Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.

How accurate is this turbulence forecast?

It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.

flybud

Fly 5J312 knowing what's ahead

The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.

5J312Light