flight turbulence forecast

XQ660 turbulence forecast

SunExpress · Antalya (AYT) to Berlin (BER)

Fri 23 Oct · departs 14:00 Antalya time

Bumpiest stretchLight

A gentle ride. A few light ripples at most, the kind that barely move your drink.

AYT14:00Antalya
3h 35m
BER16:35Berlin
Model run 22 Oct, 06:00 UTC · checked just now
AYTBER
SmoothLightModerateSevere The line is the planned route of XQ660, coloured by its own forecast. The shading is the bumpy air and storms forecast at cruise height around the middle of the flight.
Bumpiest stretch
Light
Flight time
3h 35m
Distance
2,187 km
Cruise altitude
35,000 ft
Weather models
3 blended
Model agreement
Medium
Aircraft
Boeing 737 NG

Bumpiness along the flight

Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.

SmoothLightModerateSevere 1h2h Take off Landing

Where, and why

The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.

AYT · Take off0m – 33mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.

Cruise33m – 1h 38mLight

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Cruise1h 38m – 2h 44mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Descent into Berlin2h 44m – 3h 35mLight

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.

Thunderstorms near the route

From 56m to 1h 5m into the flight the forecast has thunderstorms about 50 km from the planned line.

The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.

The ride line stays calm here because the route as planned keeps its distance from them.

in the app

This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.

A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add XQ660 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.

Flight status

The latest XQ660 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.

XQ660 · Fri 23 OctScheduled
Departs · AYT
14:00
Antalya · Terminal 2
Arrives · BER
16:35
Berlin · Terminal 1

Last update 5 h ago

Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.

Weather on arrival

12° and light rain in Berlin around landing time.

The aircraft

What XQ660 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.

Boeing 737-800

Type code
B738
Seats on this flight
189
First flew
1997
In service since
1998
Economy seating
3-3
Engines
2
Cabin pressure equal to
8,000 ft

Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.

Boeing 737 NG safety record →

The airline

SunExpress

SunExpress operates XQ660.

on your lock screen

XQ660 without unlocking your phone

Gate, delay, time to landing and the next bumpy stretch, on the lock screen from boarding to the baggage belt.

The route

Antalya (AYT) → Berlin (BER)

Distance
2,187 km
Flight time
3h 35m
Usual departure
14:00 local
Usual arrival
16:35 local

Forecast any other route →

What each level feels like

Smooth
Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
Light
Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
Moderate
Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
Severe
Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.

How this forecast is made

The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.

The weather models behind this forecast mostly agree; the bumpy patches may shift a little.

Planned route · timing and conditions may change.

the live map

Watch the air along the route move

The app draws the route of XQ660 over the moving forecast: bumpy air, storms and the winds at cruise height. Scrub through the flight hour by hour.

Why turbulence isn't dangerous

Aircraft are designed for much worse.

Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.

Crews know where it is.

Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.

Keep your belt on.

Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Is turbulence dangerous? The long answer →

Questions about XQ660

Will XQ660 be bumpy?

For the flight on Fri 23 Oct: A gentle ride. A few light ripples at most, the kind that barely move your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.

What plane flies XQ660?

Recently XQ660 has been flown with: Boeing 737 NG. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.

How long is XQ660?

About 3h 35m gate to gate from Antalya to Berlin, a distance of about 2,187 km.

What time does XQ660 leave?

XQ660 usually departs Antalya at 14:00 local time and arrives in Berlin at 16:35 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.

Is turbulence dangerous on XQ660?

Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.

How accurate is this turbulence forecast?

It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.

flybud

Fly XQ660 knowing what's ahead

The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.

XQ660Light