VA551 turbulence forecast
Virgin Australia · Sydney (SYD) to Perth (PER)
Next departure at its usual time · Fri 2 Oct, 07:15 Sydney time
This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air VA551 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.
Mostly light. About 40 minutes of moderate bumps mid-flight. Belt sign on, built for far more.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Moderate
- Flight time
- 5h 15m
- Distance
- 3,281 km
- Cruise altitude
- 37,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- Medium
- Aircraft
- Boeing 737 MAX
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
SYD · Take off0m – 20mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.
Cruise21m – 1h 2mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It is the most common kind of turbulence and it never comes as a surprise: it is on the crew's charts, and they slow to a set turbulence speed and let the aircraft ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a river of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast maps exactly where those edges sit.
Cruise1h 2m – 2h 24mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a river of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast maps exactly where those edges sit.
Cruise2h 24m – 2h 51mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It is the most common kind of turbulence and it never comes as a surprise: it is on the crew's charts, and they slow to a set turbulence speed and let the aircraft ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a river of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast maps exactly where those edges sit.
Cruise2h 51m – 3h 32mModerate
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It is the most common kind of turbulence and it never comes as a surprise: it is on the crew's charts, and they slow to a set turbulence speed and let the aircraft ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a river of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast maps exactly where those edges sit.
Cruise3h 32m – 4h 41mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It is the most common kind of turbulence and it never comes as a surprise: it is on the crew's charts, and they slow to a set turbulence speed and let the aircraft ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a river of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast maps exactly where those edges sit.
Descent into Perth4h 41m – 5h 15mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.
Thunderstorms near the route
From 27m to 1h 8m into the flight the forecast has thunderstorms about 40 km from the planned line.
Storms and a calm ride line are not a contradiction. The line follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops, and pilots never fly through a storm: the weather radar in the nose paints every one, and the rule is to give it at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) of room. What a storm usually costs you is a few minutes of detour, not bumps.
The ride line stays calm here because the route as planned keeps its distance from them.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add VA551 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest VA551 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 5 h ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
The aircraft
What VA551 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Boeing 737 MAX 8
- Type code
- B38M
- Seats on this flight
- 182
- First flew
- 2016
- In service since
- 2017
- Economy seating
- 3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Range
- 6,480 km
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 8,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, but every airliner is built for far more than turbulence produces.
The airline
Virgin Australia
Virgin Australia operates VA551.
The route
Sydney (SYD) → Perth (PER)
- Distance
- 3,281 km
- Flight time
- 5h 15m
- Usual departure
- 07:15 local
- Usual arrival
- 10:30 local
Recent VA551 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 1 Oct | 737 MAX | Light | 5 min late |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Distinct bumps. A drink might slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, and the aircraft is in full control throughout.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. Rare, and the reason the belt sign exists: crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The weather models behind this forecast mostly agree; the bumpy patches may shift a little.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why the bumps are only bumps
Built for it.
Airliners are tested to loads far beyond anything turbulence produces; the wing flexing you can see is by design.
Seen in advance.
Your crew flies with forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of the bumpy air.
The belt is the whole story.
Turbulence injuries almost always involve someone standing or unbuckled. Seated with the belt on, it is a bumpy road and nothing more.
Questions about VA551
Will VA551 be bumpy?
For the flight on Fri 2 Oct: Mostly light. About 40 minutes of moderate bumps mid-flight. Belt sign on, built for far more. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies VA551?
Recently VA551 has been flown with: Boeing 737 MAX. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is VA551?
About 5h 15m gate to gate from Sydney to Perth, a distance of about 3,281 km.
What time does VA551 leave?
VA551 usually departs Sydney at 07:15 local time and arrives in Perth at 10:30 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on VA551?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly VA551 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.