NZ5115 turbulence forecast
Air New Zealand · Auckland (AKL) to Palmerston North (PMR)
Next departure at its usual time · Mon 9 Nov, 10:15 Auckland time
This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air NZ5115 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.
Smooth most of the way, with occasional light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Light
- Flight time
- 1h 15m
- Distance
- 375 km
- Cruise altitude
- 28,000 ft
- Aircraft
- ATR 42/72
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
AKL · Take off0m – 21mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.
Cruise21m – 25mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise25m – 1h 15mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Thunderstorms near the route
From 0m to 10m into the flight the forecast has thunderstorms about 60 km from the planned line.
The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.
The ride line stays calm here because the route as planned keeps its distance from them.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add NZ5115 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest NZ5115 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 9 days ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
The aircraft
What NZ5115 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
ATR 72
- Type code
- AT75
- Seats on this flight
- 68
- First flew
- 1984
- In service since
- 1985
- Economy seating
- 2-2
- Engines
- 2
- Range
- 1,370 km
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Air New Zealand
- Flying since
- 1940
- Alliance
- Star Alliance
- Hubs
- Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington
- Country
- New Zealand
The route
Auckland (AKL) → Palmerston North (PMR)
- Distance
- 375 km
- Flight time
- 1h 15m
- Usual departure
- 10:15 local
- Usual arrival
- 11:30 local
Recent NZ5115 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 29 Oct | ATR 72 | Moderate | 9 min early |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through a global weather model, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about NZ5115
Will NZ5115 be bumpy?
For the flight on Mon 9 Nov: Smooth most of the way, with occasional light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies NZ5115?
Recently NZ5115 has been flown with: ATR 42/72. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is NZ5115?
About 1h 15m gate to gate from Auckland to Palmerston North, a distance of about 375 km.
What time does NZ5115 leave?
NZ5115 usually departs Auckland at 10:15 local time and arrives in Palmerston North at 11:30 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on NZ5115?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly NZ5115 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.