LJ515 turbulence forecast
Jin Air · Seoul (GMP) to Jeju (CJU)
The forecast for its last flight, Mon 12 Oct
We have no upcoming LJ515 departure on record, so this is the forecast its most recent flight carried.
Smooth most of the way, with some light bumps after takeoff. Barely moves your drink.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Light
- Flight time
- 1h 15m
- Distance
- 451 km
- Cruise altitude
- 33,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- High
- Aircraft
- Airbus A320 family
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
GMP · Take off0m – 18mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.
Cruise18m – 34mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise34m – 53mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise53m – 58mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Descent into Jeju58m – 1h 15mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.
Thunderstorms near the route
From 13m to 42m into the flight the forecast has thunderstorms about 40 km from the planned line.
The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.
The ride line stays calm here because the route as planned keeps its distance from them.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add LJ515 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest LJ515 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 25 days ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
The aircraft
What LJ515 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Airbus A321
- Type code
- A321
- Seats on this flight
- 174
- First flew
- 1987
- In service since
- 1988
- Economy seating
- 3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 8,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Jin Air
Jin Air operates LJ515.
The route
Seoul (GMP) → Jeju (CJU)
- Distance
- 451 km
- Flight time
- 1h 15m
- Usual departure
- 19:05 local
- Usual arrival
- 20:20 local
Recent LJ515 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 Oct | A320 | Light | 58 min late |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about LJ515
Will LJ515 be bumpy?
Forecasts for LJ515 open about three days before departure. Until then no weather model reaches far enough ahead to say anything honest about the ride.
What plane flies LJ515?
Recently LJ515 has been flown with: Airbus A320 family. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is LJ515?
About 1h 15m gate to gate from Seoul to Jeju, a distance of about 451 km.
What time does LJ515 leave?
LJ515 usually departs Seoul at 19:05 local time and arrives in Jeju at 20:20 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on LJ515?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly LJ515 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.