FR1954 turbulence forecast
Ryanair · Birmingham, West Midlands (BHX) to Palma de Mallorca (PMI)
Next departure at its usual time · Tue 6 Oct, 19:35 Birmingham, West Midlands time
This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air FR1954 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.
Mostly smooth. About 40 minutes of light bumps mid-flight. Barely moves your drink.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Light
- Flight time
- 2h 30m
- Distance
- 1,475 km
- Cruise altitude
- 35,000 ft
- Aircraft
- Boeing 737-800
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
Cruise0m – 55mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a river of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast maps exactly where those edges sit.
Cruise55m – 1h 35mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It is the most common kind of turbulence and it never comes as a surprise: it is on the crew's charts, and they slow to a set turbulence speed and let the aircraft ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a river of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast maps exactly where those edges sit.
Descent into Palma de Mallorca1h 35m – 2h 30mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.
Thunderstorms near the route
Between 59m and 2h 17m into the flight the forecast has a few thunderstorms, some on the planned line itself.
Storms and a calm ride line are not a contradiction. The line follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops, and pilots never fly through a storm: the weather radar in the nose paints every one, and the rule is to give it at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) of room. What a storm usually costs you is a few minutes of detour, not bumps.
The closest of these sits inside the 20 nm the crew has to leave, so what it costs is a small turn around it — the line you are looking at is the plan, not the track they will fly.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add FR1954 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
The aircraft
What FR1954 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Boeing 737-800
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, but every airliner is built for far more than turbulence produces.
The airline
Ryanair
- Flying since
- 1984
- Hubs
- London Stansted, Dublin, Milan Bergamo
- Country
- Ireland
The route
Birmingham, West Midlands (BHX) → Palma de Mallorca (PMI)
- Distance
- 1,475 km
- Flight time
- 2h 30m
- Usual departure
- 19:35 local
- Usual arrival
- 23:05 local
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Distinct bumps. A drink might slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, and the aircraft is in full control throughout.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. Rare, and the reason the belt sign exists: crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through a global weather model, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why the bumps are only bumps
Built for it.
Airliners are tested to loads far beyond anything turbulence produces; the wing flexing you can see is by design.
Seen in advance.
Your crew flies with forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of the bumpy air.
The belt is the whole story.
Turbulence injuries almost always involve someone standing or unbuckled. Seated with the belt on, it is a bumpy road and nothing more.
Questions about FR1954
Will FR1954 be bumpy?
For the flight on Tue 6 Oct: Mostly smooth. About 40 minutes of light bumps mid-flight. Barely moves your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
How long is FR1954?
About 2h 30m gate to gate from Birmingham, West Midlands to Palma de Mallorca, a distance of about 1,475 km.
What time does FR1954 leave?
FR1954 usually departs Birmingham, West Midlands at 19:35 local time and arrives in Palma de Mallorca at 23:05 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on FR1954?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly FR1954 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.