AV4888 turbulence forecast
Avianca - Aerovias Nacionales de Colombia · Armenia (AXM) to Bogota (BOG)
Sun 8 Nov · departs 15:00 Armenia time
Smooth or light most of the way, with some moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Moderate
- Flight time
- 1h
- Distance
- 182 km
- Cruise altitude
- 28,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- Medium
- Aircraft
- Airbus A320 family
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
AXM · Take off0m – 7mLight
Mountain waves
Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.
The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.
Cruise6m – 25mModerate
Mountain waves
Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise25m – 35mLight
Mountain waves
Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Descent into Bogota35m – 1hSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add AV4888 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest AV4888 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 2 h ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
Weather on arrival
19° and mainly clear in Bogota around landing time.
The aircraft
What AV4888 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Airbus A320
- Type code
- A320
- First flew
- 1987
- In service since
- 1988
- Economy seating
- 3-3
- Engines
- 2
- Cabin pressure equal to
- 8,000 ft
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Avianca - Aerovias Nacionales de Colombia
Avianca - Aerovias Nacionales de Colombia operates AV4888.
The route
Armenia (AXM) → Bogota (BOG)
- Distance
- 182 km
- Flight time
- 1h
- Usual departure
- 15:00 local
- Usual arrival
- 16:00 local
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The weather models behind this forecast mostly agree; the bumpy patches may shift a little.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about AV4888
Will AV4888 be bumpy?
For the flight on Sun 8 Nov: Smooth or light most of the way, with some moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies AV4888?
Recently AV4888 has been flown with: Airbus A320 family. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is AV4888?
About 1h gate to gate from Armenia to Bogota, a distance of about 182 km.
What time does AV4888 leave?
AV4888 usually departs Armenia at 15:00 local time and arrives in Bogota at 16:00 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on AV4888?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly AV4888 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.