flight turbulence forecast

6J95 turbulence forecast

Skynet Asia Airways · Tokyo (HND) to Oita (OIT)

Next departure at its usual time · Sat 7 Nov, 14:30 Tokyo time

This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air 6J95 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.

Bumpiest stretchModerate

Bumpy in places. The belt sign may come on for a while. Airliners are designed for much stronger turbulence than this.

HND14:30Tokyo
1h 40m
OIT16:10Oita
Model run 6 Nov, 12:00 UTC · checked just now
HNDOIT
SmoothLightModerateSevere The line is the planned route of 6J95, coloured by its own forecast. The shading is the bumpy air and storms forecast at cruise height around the middle of the flight.
Bumpiest stretch
Moderate
Flight time
1h 40m
Distance
772 km
Cruise altitude
33,000 ft
Weather models
3 blended
Model agreement
Medium

Bumpiness along the flight

Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.

SmoothLightModerateSevere Take off Landing

Where, and why

The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.

HND · Take off0m – 11mLight

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.

Cruise11m – 1h 25mModerate

Jet-stream wind shear

Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Cruise1h 25m – 1h 33mLight

Mountain waves

Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Descent into Oita1h 34m – 1h 40mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.

in the app

This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.

A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add 6J95 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.

The aircraft

What 6J95 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.

The aircraft for the next 6J95 is assigned closer to departure.

Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.

The airline

Skynet Asia Airways

Skynet Asia Airways operates 6J95.

on your lock screen

6J95 without unlocking your phone

Gate, delay, time to landing and the next bumpy stretch, on the lock screen from boarding to the baggage belt.

The route

Tokyo (HND) → Oita (OIT)

Distance
772 km
Flight time
1h 40m
Usual departure
14:30 local
Usual arrival
16:10 local

Forecast any other route →

What each level feels like

Smooth
Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
Light
Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
Moderate
Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
Severe
Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.

How this forecast is made

The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.

The weather models behind this forecast mostly agree; the bumpy patches may shift a little.

Planned route · timing and conditions may change.

the live map

Watch the air along the route move

The app draws the route of 6J95 over the moving forecast: bumpy air, storms and the winds at cruise height. Scrub through the flight hour by hour.

Why turbulence isn't dangerous

Aircraft are designed for much worse.

Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.

Crews know where it is.

Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.

Keep your belt on.

Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Is turbulence dangerous? The long answer →

Questions about 6J95

Will 6J95 be bumpy?

For the flight on Sat 7 Nov: Bumpy in places. The belt sign may come on for a while. Airliners are designed for much stronger turbulence than this. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.

How long is 6J95?

About 1h 40m gate to gate from Tokyo to Oita, a distance of about 772 km.

What time does 6J95 leave?

6J95 usually departs Tokyo at 14:30 local time and arrives in Oita at 16:10 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.

Is turbulence dangerous on 6J95?

Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.

How accurate is this turbulence forecast?

It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.

flybud

Fly 6J95 knowing what's ahead

The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.

6J95Moderate