6J15 turbulence forecast
Skynet Asia Airways · Tokyo (HND) to Kumamoto (KMJ)
Next departure at its usual time · Sun 8 Nov, 12:05 Tokyo time
This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air 6J15 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.
Smooth most of the way, with light bumps mainly after takeoff. Barely moves your drink.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Light
- Flight time
- 1h 55m
- Distance
- 875 km
- Cruise altitude
- 33,000 ft
- Weather models
- 3 blended
- Model agreement
- Low
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
HND · Take off0m – 13mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
The first minutes are flown through the lowest, liveliest air. Sun-warmed ground sends up thermals and wind bends around hills, so a bump or two while climbing is normal. It fades as the aircraft climbs into the smoother air above.
Cruise12m – 37mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise38m – 57mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise58m – 1h 23mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Descent into Kumamoto1h 22m – 1h 55mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add 6J15 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
The aircraft
What 6J15 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
The aircraft for the next 6J15 is assigned closer to departure.
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
Skynet Asia Airways
Skynet Asia Airways operates 6J15.
The route
Tokyo (HND) → Kumamoto (KMJ)
- Distance
- 875 km
- Flight time
- 1h 55m
- Usual departure
- 12:05 local
- Usual arrival
- 14:00 local
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The weather models behind this forecast disagree in places, so treat the timing loosely.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about 6J15
Will 6J15 be bumpy?
For the flight on Sun 8 Nov: Smooth most of the way, with light bumps mainly after takeoff. Barely moves your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
How long is 6J15?
About 1h 55m gate to gate from Tokyo to Kumamoto, a distance of about 875 km.
What time does 6J15 leave?
6J15 usually departs Tokyo at 12:05 local time and arrives in Kumamoto at 14:00 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on 6J15?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly 6J15 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.