4Y68 turbulence forecast
4Y · Frankfurt am Main (FRA) to Orlando (MCO)
Next departure at its usual time · Fri 23 Oct, 13:40 Frankfurt am Main time
This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air 4Y68 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.
Smooth or light most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on.
- Bumpiest stretch
- Moderate
- Flight time
- 10h 15m
- Distance
- 7,735 km
- Cruise altitude
- 37,000 ft
- Weather models
- 4 blended
- Model agreement
- Medium
- Aircraft
- Airbus A330
Bumpiness along the flight
Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.
Where, and why
The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.
Cruise0m – 1h 37mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise1h 37m – 2h 14mModerate
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise2h 14m – 5h 31mLight
Jet-stream wind shear
Where fast air slides over slower air, usually at the edge of the jet stream, the boundary ripples like a flag. It's the most common kind of turbulence, and it's on the crew's charts before departure. When they meet it, they slow to a set turbulence speed and ride it out.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Cruise5h 31m – 10h 15mSmooth
Nothing significant forecast here.
At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.
Thunderstorms near the route
Between 15m and 6h 55m into the flight the forecast has a few thunderstorms, some on the planned line itself.
The ride line can stay calm with storms nearby. It follows the planned track at cruise height, above most storm tops. Pilots don't fly through storms: the weather radar in the nose shows each one, and the rule is to stay at least 20 nautical miles (about 37 km) away. Usually that means a detour of a few minutes.
The closest of these is within the 20 nm the crew has to keep, so expect a small turn around it. The line on the map is the planned route; the real track will bend around the storm.
A tropical cyclone near the route
Josephine (Hurricane, category ts) is forecast to be about 90 km from the aircraft around 6h 45m into the flight, at its closest.
Tropical cyclones are tracked for days by official warning centres, and airlines plan routes, altitudes and timings around them before departure. The air can be bumpy well beyond the storm's centre, which is why the crew may keep the seatbelt sign on for longer near one.
This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.
A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add 4Y68 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.
Flight status
The latest 4Y68 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.
Last update 4 days ago
Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.
The aircraft
What 4Y68 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.
Airbus A330
- Type code
- A330
- Seats on this flight
- 283
Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.
The airline
4Y
4Y operates 4Y68.
The route
Frankfurt am Main (FRA) → Orlando (MCO)
- Distance
- 7,735 km
- Flight time
- 10h 15m
- Usual departure
- 13:40 local
- Usual arrival
- 17:55 local
Recent 4Y68 flights
The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.
| Date | Aircraft | Forecast | How it ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct | A330 | Moderate | On time |
What each level feels like
- Smooth
- Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
- Light
- Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
- Moderate
- Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
- Severe
- Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.
How this forecast is made
The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 4 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.
The weather models behind this forecast mostly agree; the bumpy patches may shift a little.
Planned route · timing and conditions may change.
Why turbulence isn't dangerous
Aircraft are designed for much worse.
Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.
Crews know where it is.
Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.
Keep your belt on.
Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Questions about 4Y68
Will 4Y68 be bumpy?
For the flight on Fri 23 Oct: Smooth or light most of the way, with occasional moderate bumps after takeoff. The belt sign will likely come on. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.
What plane flies 4Y68?
Recently 4Y68 has been flown with: A330. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.
How long is 4Y68?
About 10h 15m gate to gate from Frankfurt am Main to Orlando, a distance of about 7,735 km.
What time does 4Y68 leave?
4Y68 usually departs Frankfurt am Main at 13:40 local time and arrives in Orlando at 17:55 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.
Is turbulence dangerous on 4Y68?
Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.
How accurate is this turbulence forecast?
It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.
Fly 4Y68 knowing what's ahead
The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.