flight turbulence forecast

4M179 turbulence forecast

LAN Argentina · Cologne/Bonn (CGN) to Antalya (AYT)

Next departure at its usual time · Sun 8 Nov, 00:05 Cologne/Bonn time

This date's schedule isn't confirmed yet. This is the air 4M179 flies through if it leaves at its usual time.

Bumpiest stretchLight

Smooth most of the way, with some light bumps on descent. Barely moves your drink.

CGN00:05Cologne/Bonn
3h 25m
AYT04:30Antalya
Model run 6 Nov, 18:00 UTC · checked just now
CGNAYT
SmoothLightModerateSevere The line is the planned route of 4M179, coloured by its own forecast. The shading is the bumpy air and storms forecast at cruise height around the middle of the flight.
Bumpiest stretch
Light
Flight time
3h 25m
Distance
2,433 km
Cruise altitude
35,000 ft
Weather models
3 blended
Model agreement
High
Aircraft
Boeing 737 NG

Bumpiness along the flight

Takeoff on the left, landing on the right. The higher the line, the bumpier the air the forecast expects at that moment.

SmoothLightModerateSevere 1h2h Take off Landing

Where, and why

The flight split into stretches: how bumpy each is forecast to be, and what causes it.

Cruise0m – 2h 54mSmooth

Nothing significant forecast here.

At cruise the air is thin and cold, and most of it is calm. The bumps up here come from the jet stream, a band of fast wind whose edges stir the air, or from waves set off by mountains far below. This forecast shows where those edges are.

Descent into Antalya2h 54m – 3h 25mLight

Mountain waves

Wind blowing over a mountain range makes waves in the air downstream, the way water ripples over rocks in a stream, and those waves can reach cruising height. They are forecast from the same wind and terrain data used here, so the crew knows where they are before departure.

Coming down means flying back through the low, lively air near the ground: afternoon thermals, gusts around the airport. It is the busiest part of the flight for the crew, and the part they train for most.

in the app

This forecast changes. FlyBud tells you when.

A new weather model run lands every few hours. Add 4M179 in FlyBud and you get the full turbulence map along your route, a push when the forecast for your flight changes, live tracking and your flight on the lock screen.

Flight status

The latest 4M179 flight on our records, as the airline last reported it.

4M179 · Sun 25 OctArrived · 8 min early
Departs · CGN
00:15
Scheduled 00:05 · Terminal 2
Arrives · AYT
04:22
Scheduled 04:30 · Terminal 2

Last update 13 days ago

Gate changes, delays and the baggage belt, pushed to your phone as they happen.

The aircraft

What 4M179 is flown with, and how it handles bumpy air.

Boeing 737-800 (winglets)

Type code
B738
Seats on this flight
189
First flew
1997
In service since
1998
Economy seating
3-3
Engines
2
Cabin pressure equal to
8,000 ft

Bigger and heavier aircraft are moved less by the same patch of air, and every airliner is designed for much stronger turbulence than it will meet.

Boeing 737 NG safety record →

The airline

LAN Argentina

LAN Argentina operates 4M179.

on your lock screen

4M179 without unlocking your phone

Gate, delay, time to landing and the next bumpy stretch, on the lock screen from boarding to the baggage belt.

The route

Cologne/Bonn (CGN) → Antalya (AYT)

Distance
2,433 km
Flight time
3h 25m
Usual departure
00:05 local
Usual arrival
04:30 local

Forecast any other route →

Recent 4M179 flights

The forecast each flight carried, and how it ran.

DateAircraftForecastHow it ran
Sun 25 Oct 737-800 Moderate 8 min early

What each level feels like

Smooth
Calm air. Nothing to notice beyond the hum of the engines.
Light
Gentle ripples and the odd dip. Drinks stay put, and walking to the toilet is fine.
Moderate
Clear bumps. Drinks may slosh and the belt sign comes on. Uncomfortable, but the pilots stay in full control.
Severe
Strong jolts, and loose items can move. This is rare, and it's why the belt sign exists. Crews slow down and change altitude to get out of it.

How this forecast is made

The planned route is sampled from gate to gate at the altitude the aircraft flies, through 3 independent global weather models, and corrected with turbulence reports radioed in by pilots in the last few hours. Each new model run replaces the forecast; nothing here is a guess from the airline's history.

The independent weather models behind this forecast agree on this ride.

Planned route · timing and conditions may change.

the live map

Watch the air along the route move

The app draws the route of 4M179 over the moving forecast: bumpy air, storms and the winds at cruise height. Scrub through the flight hour by hour.

Why turbulence isn't dangerous

Aircraft are designed for much worse.

Airliners are tested to loads well beyond anything turbulence produces. The wings are meant to flex, so seeing them move is normal.

Crews know where it is.

Your crew has forecasts like this one, live reports from other pilots and their own weather radar, and they change altitude to stay out of bumpy air.

Keep your belt on.

Almost all turbulence injuries happen to people who are standing or not buckled in. Seated with your belt on, turbulence is uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Is turbulence dangerous? The long answer →

Questions about 4M179

Will 4M179 be bumpy?

For the flight on Sun 8 Nov: Smooth most of the way, with some light bumps on descent. Barely moves your drink. The forecast is replaced with every new weather model run, so check back closer to departure.

What plane flies 4M179?

Recently 4M179 has been flown with: Boeing 737 NG. Airlines can swap the aircraft until shortly before departure.

How long is 4M179?

About 3h 25m gate to gate from Cologne/Bonn to Antalya, a distance of about 2,433 km.

What time does 4M179 leave?

4M179 usually departs Cologne/Bonn at 00:05 local time and arrives in Antalya at 04:30 local time. Times change; the app tracks the live schedule.

Is turbulence dangerous on 4M179?

Turbulence is uncomfortable, not dangerous to the aircraft. Airliners are certified for loads far beyond anything turbulence produces, and crews plan around the bumpy patches with the same kind of forecast as this one. Injuries are almost always to people who were standing or unbuckled, so keep your seatbelt fastened whenever you're seated.

How accurate is this turbulence forecast?

It is a forecast, so it is best within a day or so of departure and improves with every model run. The bumpy patches it finds are usually in the right place, but their timing can shift by a few minutes and the crew may change altitude to avoid them, so the ride you get is often smoother than the forecast.

flybud

Fly 4M179 knowing what's ahead

The turbulence forecast for your exact flight, live tracking, delay alerts and arrival weather. Built for people who'd rather know.

4M179Light